Brett Warren , National Director – Metropole Group
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Brisbane has gone from leading Australia’s property boom to leading its downturn. Values fell 2% in October, the largest monthly drop of any capital, and are down 6.1% over the past three months.
The decline is no longer confined to a handful of overheated pockets. Every suburb across the Brisbane capital region has recorded a fall in value over the past quarter, and the median home value is now 8.3% below its record high, roughly $92,000 lower than at the top.
Brisbane is part of a broader national slide. Cotality’s national index fell 1.2% in October, its seventh straight monthly decline, and capital city values have dropped 8.1% in seven months, the fastest fall over a comparable period in at least 40 years.
The speed of the turn is striking. A year ago, Brisbane buyers were competing hard for limited stock. Today, turnover has dropped by almost a third, and the city is outpacing even Sydney in the rate of decline.
Every Brisbane Suburb Is Now Going Backwards
Brisbane, Perth and Sydney are the three markets setting the pace of this correction, but Brisbane is ahead on both monthly and quarterly measures. Weaker demand is clear in transaction numbers too, with estimated home sales over the past three months about 29% lower than a year earlier.
| Market | October change | Three-month change | Sales versus a year ago |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brisbane | -2.0% | -6.1% | -29% |
| Perth | -1.7% | -5.7% | -27% |
| Sydney | -1.6% | -4.7% | -30% |
| National | -1.2% | n/a | -23% |
Source: Cotality, November 2026
The Bigger the Boom, the Faster the Unwind
Brisbane’s position at the top of the decline table makes sense when you look back at the upswing. The mid-sized capitals delivered exceptionally strong growth during the last cycle, and the same momentum is now playing out in reverse.
One notable shift is in who is feeling it. During the boom, the most affordable quartile of homes clearly outperformed. That gap has now closed, particularly in the mid-sized capitals, where there is now very little difference in growth rates between price segments.
Brisbane’s downturn is now broad-based, with every suburb in the capital region recording a fall in value over the past three months.
There is a silver lining for long-term owners. Because values rose so sharply during the boom, most Brisbane homeowners still hold substantial equity, even after an 8.3% fall from the peak.
The risk is greatest for those who bought near the top with a high loan-to-value ratio, where a further fall could erode a thin deposit.
Fewer New Arrivals, Softer Rent Rises
Population flows have long been one of Brisbane’s key demand drivers, so the slowdown in net overseas migration is worth watching for investors. Cotality expects it to ease some of the pressure on rental demand nationally.
Tenant budgets are the bigger constraint. National rents have increased 52% over the past six years, lifting the median by about $245 a week, and Cotality believes renters are close to the limit of what they can pay. Rents rose just 0.9% over the past quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis, the smallest increase since January 2025.
Vacancies are edging up in response. The national rate reached 2.3% in October, its highest since January 2022, the month before international borders reopened. That is close to the 10-year average of 2.4% but still below the 3.3% recorded on average in the decade before COVID, so landlords are facing a cooling market rather than a glut.
| Indicator | Figure | Why it matters for investors |
|---|---|---|
| National vacancy rate | 2.3% | Highest since January 2022 |
| Quarterly rent growth (seasonally adjusted) | +0.9% | Slowest since January 2025 |
| Rent increase over six years | +52% (about $245 a week) | Tenants near affordability limit |
| RBA cash rate | 4.85% | Higher holding costs |
| Brisbane median value from peak | About -$92,000 | Lower entry prices for patient buyers |
Source: Cotality, November 2026
Higher Rates Are Doing the Heavy Lifting
The RBA’s latest move, a 25 basis point increase on Melbourne Cup day, took the cash rate to 4.85%, its highest level in 18 years. It was the fifth rise of 2026, totalling 125 basis points.
Inflation is the reason. Headline CPI rose to 4.3% over the year to September, and core inflation jumped 1% in the quarter to an annual 3.7%, well above the 2–3% target. The RBA has left the door open to further increases if inflation stays high.
For a median-income household, Cotality estimates the rate cycle has cut borrowing capacity by around 12%, or nearly $90,000. That is a larger hit than the fall in Brisbane’s median value, which means cheaper homes are not necessarily more attainable for buyers who depend on a mortgage.
A softer jobs market adds to the caution, with national unemployment at 4.7% and annual jobs growth down to 1.2%. Weaker investor demand following the federal budget’s tax changes is a further headwind.
If you are buying in Brisbane, factor in the possibility of another rate rise when you assess repayments, so a further hike does not stretch your budget.
What Would Need to Change for Brisbane to Steady?
Cotality expects the housing market to remain under pressure over the coming months and into next year, with the risks still weighted to the downside. Nationally, this could become the largest housing value decline in at least 40 years.
Some support remains in place. Australia is still not building enough homes, as high construction costs, limited capacity and complex project delivery slow new supply. Population growth has eased but is still positive, sustaining underlying demand.
For Brisbane to find a floor, the key conditions are lower inflation, an end to rate hikes and a labour market that holds together. Until then, buyers are likely to keep the upper hand.
