Brett Warren , National Director – Metropole Group
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Brisbane’s housing market continues to demonstrate strong growth, with home values rising by 1.6% in January. While this remains a robust result, it marks a slight deceleration from the cyclical high of 2.0% recorded in October last year. Over the past 12 months, Brisbane dwelling values have surged by 15.7%, adding approximately $143,000 to the median value.
The market is being propelled by exceptional performance in the unit sector and lower price points. As affordability constraints tighten for detached houses, demand is increasingly shifting toward more accessible options, resulting in record-breaking capital gains for apartments.
Brisbane Market Performance
Brisbane’s annual capital gains have reached double digits across both houses and units, with the lower end of the market seeing the most intense appreciation.
| Segment | Monthly Change (January) | Annual Change | Key Performance Factor |
|---|---|---|---|
| All Dwellings | 1.6% | 15.7% | Median dwelling value up by ~$143,000 in a year. |
| Houses | Strong | 15.1% | Sustained demand despite rising entry costs. |
| Units | Outperforming | 18.3% | Driven by lower price points and high investor interest. |
Source: Cotality, February 2026
The Unit Sector Surge
The unit market has officially overtaken houses in terms of the rate of capital gain. Values for units rose by 18.3% over the past year, compared to 15.1% for houses. Within this sector, the lower quartile of units is the standout performer, recording a massive 23.4% surge in values over the last 12 months.
This trend reflects a clear pivot by buyers toward affordable high-density living as house prices continue to outpace local income growth.
Supply and Rental Market Pressure
Tight supply remains the primary driver of price growth. Advertised stock levels are tracking roughly 25% below the five-year average, and new housing completions are failing to keep pace with demand.
| Metric | Current Condition |
|---|---|
| National Vacancy Rate | 1.7% (Extremely tight) |
| Rental Growth (National) | 5.4% annually (+$35.20 per week) |
| Supply Status | Advertised stock ~25% below 5-year average |
Source: Cotality, February 2026
Ultra-low rental vacancy rates are also nudging more households toward home ownership.
With the national rental index up 0.6% in January—the strongest monthly change since April last year—the financial incentive to transition from renting to owning remains strong for those who can clear the serviceability buffer.
Outlook and Risks for 2026
Brisbane is set to face a more complex environment in 2026. The 25 basis point rate hike in February and new APRA restrictions on high debt-to-income lending will likely temper borrowing capacity. However, Brisbane’s relative affordability compared to Sydney and its persistently low inventory levels are expected to provide a strong buffer. While growth is likely to remain positive, the pace is forecast to become “softer and more uneven” as the year progresses.
