Brett Warren , National Director – Metropole Group
Brisbane continues to record one of the country’s highest rates of capital gain, cementing its status as a top-performing market in October. The latest data confirms that the momentum driving housing values in the Queensland capital remains strong, reflecting persistent undersupply.
Nationally, Australian home values accelerated with a 1.1% gain. Brisbane contributed significantly to this momentum, demonstrating the strength of the unit market and the impact of critically low housing stock.
Segment Growth and Median Value
Brisbane’s dwelling values surged by 1.8% in October, marking the city’s highest monthly rise since February 2022.
This strong performance saw the median dwelling value increase by approximately $4,000 per week through the month.
In a notable trend, the unit market is currently leading the pace of growth, slightly outpacing house values:
| Housing Segment | Monthly Value Growth (October) |
|---|---|
| Units | 1.9% |
| Houses | 1.8% |
Source: Cotality, November 2025
The Persistent Supply Crisis
The core driver of this upward pressure is the severe shortage of available housing stock. Record low listing levels are heavily skewing selling conditions in favour of vendors. Listings are tracking significantly below long-term averages:
| Brisbane Listing Metric | Status (vs. Average) |
|---|---|
| Listings vs. 5-Year Average | 31% below |
| Listings vs. Previous Year | 19% lower |
Source: Cotality, November 2025
Outlook and Headwinds
While the demand/supply imbalance is powerful, the market must navigate several macroeconomic factors that introduce risk. The national Q3 inflation shock has led banking economists to cease forecasting further rate cuts in 2025, suggesting the rate cutting cycle may be over.
Without a material boost to borrowing capacity, the market may face cooling pressures.
Further downside risks include:
- Severe affordability challenges and stubbornly low consumer sentiment, driven by cost-of-living pressures.
- The potential for a tightening of investor credit policies. Housing credit for investors is currently rising at the fastest pace since mid-2015, an acceleration that could trigger a regulatory response and dent demand from this key segment.
Despite these headwinds, the resilience of home sales and the ongoing tightness in listing numbers mean that the value growth trend in Brisbane is likely to persist for a while yet.
