Unemployment ticks up – could a rate cut be next?

The latest labour force data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has sparked fresh conversation among property investors and homebuyers – and for good reason. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 4.5% in September, up from 4.3% in August, marking the highest level since November 2021.

While that might sound like a red flag, it could actually signal opportunity. Why? Because rising unemployment often prompts the Reserve Bank to consider easing monetary policy to stimulate the economy. With the RBA meeting scheduled for next week – 3 to 4 November – many are speculating that a rate cut could be on the cards.

Despite the uptick in unemployment, employment still grew by 15,000 people, and hours worked rose by 0.5%, which outpaced the 0.1% rise in employment. This suggests the economy is still ticking along, but with enough softness to warrant support.

For property buyers and investors, this could mean lower borrowing costs ahead. A rate cut would not only ease mortgage repayments but also boost buyer confidence and potentially reignite price growth in select markets.

With the participation rate rising to 67.0% and full-time employment showing mixed gender trends, the labour market is clearly in transition.

Smart investors will be watching closely—not just for the RBA’s decision, but for the ripple effects across housing demand and affordability.

Stay tuned. November could be a turning point.